Gov. Ron DeSantis is falling even farther behind President Donald Trump among Republican voters in Florida.

Trump is 41 percentage points ahead of DeSantis, a Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research/PolCom Lab poll released Thursday found — double the Trump advantage from July, when the former president was 20 points ahead of the Florida governor.

The results mirror what’s showing up in polls nationally and in early primary states critical in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination: good for Trump and bad for DeSantis.

In the FAU/Mainstreet/PolCom poll, which surveyed 946 Florida registered voters from Oct. 27 to Nov. 11, Trump has 61% of the vote in a multi-candidate Republican field, compared to just 20% for DeSantis. In July Trump was at 50% among Florida Republicans and DeSantis had 30%.

“Trump has the advantage,” said Kevin Wagner, an FAU political science professor. “DeSantis still needs to figure out a way to reach those voters in a way that doesn’t alienate them, and I don’t think he’s accomplished that.”

A challenge for DeSantis, Wagner said, is a tendency by people to align themselves with the candidate they see as most likely to win. “There’s an overriding perception in Florida and elsewhere that the former president is well ahead,” Wagner said. “And the longer people think that, the harder it becomes to make any headway.”

The FAU poll found a small share of Florida Republicans are considering another alternative. Nikki Haley, a former South Carolina governor and former ambassador to the United Nations under Trump, was picked by 9% of Florida voters. In July she was the choice of 1%

The poll also contains bad news for Democrats and President Joe Biden. He’d lose Florida, a finding consistent with other polling.

A particularly ominous sign for Democrats: an overwhelming majority of voters in retiree-heavy Florida believe Biden is too old for the presidency while a large majority of Florida voters don’t see Trump that way.

“The perception is that Trump is a more animated, energetic figure than Joe Biden,” Wagner said. “It’s pretty clear at this point that even across party lines that there’s a perception that age is a problem and that he might not be up to another term. And that’s a narrative that (Biden) is going to have to take head on.”

DeSantis approval

Voter approval for DeSantis’ performance is also slipping in the state he governs. The poll found 50% of all voters approve of his performance, with 49% disapproving. In July, 54% of Florida voters approved of his performance, with 43% disapproving.

During the last four months, he went from a net positive of 11 percentage points to a net positive of 1 point.

A year ago, DeSantis won a stunning reelection victory, finishing 19.4 percentage points ahead of Democrat Charlie Crist.

DeSantis has been hammered by Trump for months, and more recently by Haley. And many Floridians have been complaining about being squeezed by ever increasing costs of windstorm insurance, a problem Democrats have assailed DeSantis for failing to fix.

Views of the governor are largely partisan, with 91% of Democrats disapproving of his performance and 90% of Republicans approving.

Independent voters are more negative than positive, with 38% approving and 58% disapproving of DeSantis’ performance.

There is also a significant gender gap. Among men, 57% approve and 41% disapprove of DeSantis’ performance. Among women, 42% approve and 57% disapprove.

Trump vs. Biden

The findings of a November 2024 matchup between Trump and Biden — and a matchup between DeSantis and Biden if the governor managed to win his party’s nomination — are bad news for the Democrats.

Biden would lose to either.

In a hypothetical Biden-Trump matchup, the former president has 49% and the current president 39%. That is unchanged from FAU’s July poll.

In a hypothetical Biden-DeSantis matchup, the governor has 47% to 39% for the president. That’s a slight change from July, with DeSantis fairing slightly worse in November and Biden fairing slightly better than he did in July.

The Republicans have a significant advantage, greater than Trump’s 3.3-point Florida win during his unsuccessful 2020 campaign for reelection. Florida awards 30 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency next year.

It’s unclear what kind of general election campaign will develop in Florida between Biden and the Republican nominee. Publicly, Democrats and the Biden campaign have said they’ll compete in the state. Others are less certain, figuring Democrats and their donors will concentrate their resources on states that are more likely to be up for grabs.

Trump’s advantage is powered largely by men, 58% of whom said they would vote for him, compared to 35% for Biden.

Among women, they’re effectively tied, with 42% for Biden and 40% for Trump, well within the poll’s margin of error.

Among all voters, 10% said they’d vote for another candidate in a Biden-Trump contest. A much higher share of women (16%) than men (5%) said they’d vote for someone else.

Ominous for Biden

Trump, other Republicans and conservative media have repeatedly sought to portray Biden as infirm. Only recently have the Biden and DeSantis campaigns attempted to sow doubts about Trump’s mental acuity.

And the poll shows voters have major concerns about Biden’s ability to carry out the responsibilities of his office. Even though Trump is close in age to the president, most Florida voters aren’t concerned about the former president’s age.

The poll found 67% of Florida voters thought Biden is “too old” to hold the office, with 28% saying he isn’t too old.

That was the view of 80% of people aged 18 to 34, 58% of those aged 65 and older, 86% of Republicans and 72% of independents.

Among Democrats, 42% said he was too old and 51% said he wasn’t.

There wasn’t any difference between men and women on the question.

The opposite was true about Trump — 33% said he was too old to hold the office with 59% saying he wasn’t too old.

He is seen as too old by 59% of voters aged 18 to 34, 29% of those 65 and older, 51% of Democrats and 47% independents.

Just 11% of Republicans said he was too old and 83% said he wasn’t.

“I think it’s a pretty big drag on Joe Biden. And I think it’s part of what’s fueling the gap between him and Trump. In one way or another, he’s going to have to be able to convince voters that he can handle the job for another term,” Wagner said.

Three-fifths of voters correctly answered that Biden, age 80, is between 80 and 84 and that Trump, age 76, is between 75 and 79.

The deep political divisions among Americans were also shown in how people assess allegations of wrongdoing.

The legal proceedings against Trump — he has been indicted on 91 felony counts in four criminal cases — are seen as important by 52% of those surveyed, and not important by 46%.

Women are more likely than men and Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to see them as important.

The investigations into Biden and his son Hunter Biden, which have not so far produced evidence of presidential wrongdoing, are seen as important by 55% and not important by 44%.

Men are much more likely than women and Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to see them as important.

Biden approval low

Biden’s approval among Florida voters is significantly underwater, with just 36% approving of his performance and 62% disapproving.

“Strongly disapprove” is especially strong among Florida voters, at 52%. Just 20% “strongly approve” of Biden’s performance.

Biden enjoys 72% approval among Democrats and 96% disapproval among Republicans. Women are slightly more positive than men, but still disapprove overall.

And among the youngest voters, ages 18-34, just 1% strongly approved of Biden’s performance.

Trump’s favorability declined

Pollsters used a somewhat different question to gauge voter views of Trump.

The poll found 43% of Florida voters have a favorable view of Trump, and 55% have an unfavorable view.

That’s a decline for Trump. In July he was rated favorably by 49% of Florida voters and unfavorably by 48%.

As with Biden, there is a gender gap. 52% of men have a favorable view of Trump and 46% unfavorable. Among women, 34% have a favorable view of Trump and 65% have an unfavorable view of the former president.

Among Democrats, 92% have an unfavorable view of Trump and 76% of Republicans have a favorable view of Trump.

Independent voters are also more negative than positive about Trump, with 39% viewing him favorably and 58% unfavorably.

Fine print

The poll was conducted Oct. 27 to Nov. 11 by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab, which is a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science. The survey used text messages to reach 946 Florida registered voters who responded to a link to complete the survey online.
The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points for the full survey of Democrats, Republicans and independents. The margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans, Democrats, men and women, is higher because the sample sizes are smaller

Anthony Man can be reached at and can be found @browardpolitics on Facebook, Threads.net and Post.news.